VERIFIKASI SOUTHEASTERN ASIA-OCEANIA FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (SAOFFG) DALAM DETEKSI KEJADIAN BANJIR BANDANG DI INDONESIA (Periode Tanggal 1 Agustus 2020 – 31 Mei 2021)

Abstract

Southeastern Asia-Oceania Flash Flood Guidance (SAOFFG) is a part of the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) program initiated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in collaboration with several international institutions, namely the National Weather Service, Hydrologic Research Center, and USAID/OFDA. The SAOFFG program aims to build a forecasting and early warning system for potential flash floods in Southeast Asia and Oceania region. Indonesia, through BMKG, is the Regional Center for this program, which has been running since 2016. This system has entered the operational stage since August 2020 until now. SAOFFG product verification in the last 10 months using the dichotomous method shows results that are generally overforecast, and low skill. However, in some provinces the results are quite promising. This SAOFFG product is intended as an initial guide in seeing the potential for flash floods on a 6 hour scale, and expertise from forecasters is absolutely required to improve its accuracy.